Trend of Trends - Are Any Disruptive?

It seems like every year more and more people, organizations, cognescenti, and others either provide or are asked to provide their predictions of the hot new trends to expect in the new year.  This year is no exception.  Just google "Trends for 2013" and you will get 833,000,000, yes million, results.  Trends in technology, fashion, social media - you name it and some is predicting the hot new trends for that domain.

Here are just a few pointers to some of the more interesting technology trends:
1. The Top 5 Tech Startup Trends of 2013
2. Experts Predict Top Trends for 2013
3. Broadcom Predicts Top 10 Technology Trends in 2013
4. 7 Top Information Security Trends For 2013
5. Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends For 2013
6. Top 10 Technology Trends for 2013
7. Daniel Burrus’ Top Twenty Technology-Driven Trends for 2013
8. 20 Tech Trends for 2013 
9. 11 Big Tech Trends You'll See in 2013
10. Tech Trends 2013 Preview
11. Top Trends for 2013


As you read through these and other predictions, certain trends appear to be common to all of them.  The other thing you will notices is that all of them focus on incremental extensions to existing trends or the beginning of what the writer believes will be a new trend for the future.  Almost all of these predictions are predictable by those who follow technology.

But none of the predictions are suggested to be game changers.  No disruptive technology predicted.  The challenge for entrepreneurs is to understand these trends and think outside the box and think about how the interactions of some of these trends might provide some insight into totally new ways of doing something that people only dream about. 

Smart TVs Are Not Disruptive

Smart TV has not fulfilled the promise of disruption of the early hype.  Why?  Some say it is a problem with the interface - it is too complex and awkward.  The interface involves at least the following items: the layout of information on the screen, the interaction device, such as a keyboard, remote control, mouse, etc.  Using such interaction devices from 10 feet away is a problem in itself.  Newer devices are including voice recognition and control.  This in principle should solve the interface problem.  Some devices provide control from your iPad (or, generically, your tablet).  This also solves a lot of the interface problems.

But, is the interface really the problem? What can you do with a smart TV that you cannot already do with your dumb TV, or your computer sitting at your desktop?  It appears at present that the reason there is no disruption created by smart TVs is that they are just incremental extensions of the trend in TV ecosystems.  They integrate internet with cable capability.  Certainly, in the future, cable may lose to Internet access for all that it provides, but this is just a different way of delivering the same stuff.  In fact, Internet access often comes on the same cable that the cable company provide for you TV.  So, what's the difference?

For disruption to occur, we really need to identify another trend that when it interacts with the TV ecosystem trend one can do something you could not do before.  Tablets were introduced about the same time as smart TVs, and tablets have so disrupted the desktop PC market that they threaten to become the PC of choice.  The two trends of mobility and PC systems allowed this disruption to occur.  No one is going to carry around a 50 inch smart TV to accomplish what you can do with an iPad.

Social Media for Corporate Use now has tools

Item 3 from the CSC 2008 predictions is the following:

"3. Social power is enabling businesses to solve problems faster and more effectively using corporate social networks to find people and expertise quickly."

 Social media today is both good and bad for those that use it.  For small businesses in the retail business, a recent post (6 Sep 2012) in Social Media Today (http://socialmediatoday.com/ariherzog/820046/90-percent-small-business-use-social-media} indicates that 90% use social media to reach customers.  

But the use of social media by businesses to conduct business has greater dangers in the open environments that most social media present themselves.  LinkedIn allows a company to control group access so that a company can limit access to employees only. But for other social media this is not always possible.

A new company just started up in MA called Scrambls.  Scrambles encrypts data in the corporate network before it leaves the network to move to the social media.  Only those individuals invited to see the tweets, dropbox files, Facebook postings, etc., can unencrypt the postings.  This tool gives corporations a means for their employees to collaborate via social media sites.

This concept will gain wider consensus as more corporations move to the cloud.