Most Disruptive Technologies of 2012

So, on this last day of 2012, what technologies are people saying were the most disruptive?  Christopher Mims put together a list of 5 that seems to be the most reblogged and quoted list around, but there are a few others that are proposed.

The list proposed by Mims includes the following:

1. Controlling computers without touching them.
2. Fusing the virtual and the real;
3. The world’s most cost-effective energy storage;
4. The end of cars as we know them;
5. 5 billion people with internet access.

A good discussion of each of these can be found here.  If you want to know more about Christopher Mims you can find a short bio here.


The MIT Technology Review has put together a different take on disruption by publishing a list of 50 Disruptive Companies.  They define a disruptive company as "a business whose innovations force other businesses to alter their strategic course."  Their choice of companies is based on the following: "As a group, the companies on this list represent our best judgment of the commercial innovations most likely to change lives around the world."

Do you agree with these reports?  What technologies do you think should have been included as disruptive for 2012?  What companies should be included in the MIT Technology Review list that are not there?

Trend of Trends - Are Any Disruptive?

It seems like every year more and more people, organizations, cognescenti, and others either provide or are asked to provide their predictions of the hot new trends to expect in the new year.  This year is no exception.  Just google "Trends for 2013" and you will get 833,000,000, yes million, results.  Trends in technology, fashion, social media - you name it and some is predicting the hot new trends for that domain.

Here are just a few pointers to some of the more interesting technology trends:
1. The Top 5 Tech Startup Trends of 2013
2. Experts Predict Top Trends for 2013
3. Broadcom Predicts Top 10 Technology Trends in 2013
4. 7 Top Information Security Trends For 2013
5. Gartner: Top 10 Strategic Technology Trends For 2013
6. Top 10 Technology Trends for 2013
7. Daniel Burrus’ Top Twenty Technology-Driven Trends for 2013
8. 20 Tech Trends for 2013 
9. 11 Big Tech Trends You'll See in 2013
10. Tech Trends 2013 Preview
11. Top Trends for 2013


As you read through these and other predictions, certain trends appear to be common to all of them.  The other thing you will notices is that all of them focus on incremental extensions to existing trends or the beginning of what the writer believes will be a new trend for the future.  Almost all of these predictions are predictable by those who follow technology.

But none of the predictions are suggested to be game changers.  No disruptive technology predicted.  The challenge for entrepreneurs is to understand these trends and think outside the box and think about how the interactions of some of these trends might provide some insight into totally new ways of doing something that people only dream about. 

Smart TVs Are Not Disruptive

Smart TV has not fulfilled the promise of disruption of the early hype.  Why?  Some say it is a problem with the interface - it is too complex and awkward.  The interface involves at least the following items: the layout of information on the screen, the interaction device, such as a keyboard, remote control, mouse, etc.  Using such interaction devices from 10 feet away is a problem in itself.  Newer devices are including voice recognition and control.  This in principle should solve the interface problem.  Some devices provide control from your iPad (or, generically, your tablet).  This also solves a lot of the interface problems.

But, is the interface really the problem? What can you do with a smart TV that you cannot already do with your dumb TV, or your computer sitting at your desktop?  It appears at present that the reason there is no disruption created by smart TVs is that they are just incremental extensions of the trend in TV ecosystems.  They integrate internet with cable capability.  Certainly, in the future, cable may lose to Internet access for all that it provides, but this is just a different way of delivering the same stuff.  In fact, Internet access often comes on the same cable that the cable company provide for you TV.  So, what's the difference?

For disruption to occur, we really need to identify another trend that when it interacts with the TV ecosystem trend one can do something you could not do before.  Tablets were introduced about the same time as smart TVs, and tablets have so disrupted the desktop PC market that they threaten to become the PC of choice.  The two trends of mobility and PC systems allowed this disruption to occur.  No one is going to carry around a 50 inch smart TV to accomplish what you can do with an iPad.

Social Media for Corporate Use now has tools

Item 3 from the CSC 2008 predictions is the following:

"3. Social power is enabling businesses to solve problems faster and more effectively using corporate social networks to find people and expertise quickly."

 Social media today is both good and bad for those that use it.  For small businesses in the retail business, a recent post (6 Sep 2012) in Social Media Today (http://socialmediatoday.com/ariherzog/820046/90-percent-small-business-use-social-media} indicates that 90% use social media to reach customers.  

But the use of social media by businesses to conduct business has greater dangers in the open environments that most social media present themselves.  LinkedIn allows a company to control group access so that a company can limit access to employees only. But for other social media this is not always possible.

A new company just started up in MA called Scrambls.  Scrambles encrypts data in the corporate network before it leaves the network to move to the social media.  Only those individuals invited to see the tweets, dropbox files, Facebook postings, etc., can unencrypt the postings.  This tool gives corporations a means for their employees to collaborate via social media sites.

This concept will gain wider consensus as more corporations move to the cloud.

New Media Disruption - Crossing of Trends

In 2008 CSC posted 10 areas of potentially disruptive technologies.  The first one is the following:

"1. New media is breaking down traditional big media, giving voice to millions of individuals and unleashing new talent and creativity. Related to this, viral video and new media channels such as blogs offer businesses a radical new way to bring their messages to the market, changing distribution just as profoundly as the Internet redefined the brochure."

The most notable example of this is the growth of YouTube videos.  One can find almost anything you want on YouTube - someone will have made a video about it.  If you want help on how to solve a particular puzzle in a video game, such as Assassin's Creed,  you can find a video that will walk you through the solution.  If you want to see the latest trailer of a new movie, go to YouTube.  If you need to get some training in project management on a particular topic, YouTube has it.  An it is all free.

But, this disruptive technology only became available as the trends of personal video composing and the Internet used as a publication media joined to make this new media what it has become. 

My point is that disruptions occur when trends intersect, allowing a new development that could not occur by itself.

Is Gamification a tool for you?

A previous prediction from 2008 was that "Virtual and physical reality are blending to form a new reality. In this augmented reality, work will seem more like a game, workplace experimentation will increase, and super-collaborative skills will become paramount in the workforce."

Some recent development is proving that including game components in work processes does indeed increase productivity and enjoyment.  Happy workers are 30-35% more productive that unhappy workers.  The book by Kevin Werbach and Dan Hunter, "How Game Thinking Can Revolutionize Your Business" talks about the 6 Levels of how to include Gamification in your business processes.

Why do games work?  The basic idea is that there are components in games that motivate a wide variety of people, and motivation is what you want your employees to have.  some are motivated by the reward, some by being at the top of the list, some just because it is fund to do, regardless of whether they win or lose.  In today diverse workplace we need to have multiple tools at our disposal to motivate the vast diversity of employees.  Gamification may be a tool to consider.

Disruption by clouds is cloudy

Well, it has been a while, hasn't it.  I do find it interesting that future disruptive technologies mentioned in my Oct 2008 blog are still developing.  Some have come a long way and I will talk about those.  Today I want to mention number 8: Cloud computing is replacing the world’s data centers.

Well, is it or isn't it?  Data Center consolidation is certainly moving forward rapidly in the government area as this action has large potential costs savings to the various agencies, especially those agencies that have grown to mammoth size through congressional mergers of agencies; Homeland Security comes to mind here.

But we don't see as much movement to the cloud yet.  There are some agencies starting to move in this direction and GSA is making an effort to provide a contract vehicle that would allow government agencies to acquire cloud services.  But, security in an open cloud environment is still an open question.  Private clouds developed by the larger agencies may be able to solve that problem, but at the expense of acquiring and maintaining all the equipment necessary for such a large enterprise effort, reducing the savings potential.  

The issue of security is the major drag on open cloud computing.  Concerns about where your data is, e.g., is it in China today, and maybe Russia tomorrow?  People are addressing these issues through geo-restrictions and data encryption, but cloud providers are not generally providing these technologies as part of their cheaper offerings.