Saturday, January 5, 2013

Disruption, Again, by the Automobile

The arrival of the automobile was a disruptive technology, replacing whole industries that had grown up supporting horses and buggies.  A recent post in Wired byThilo Koslowski suggests that the automobile, aka, the car, has become the ultimate mobile device. 

"“Connected vehicles” are cars that access, consume, create, enrich, direct, and share digital information between businesses, people, organizations, infrastructures, and things. Those “things” include other vehicles, which is where the Internet of Things becomes the Internet of Cars."
One might ask when such vehicles might become available?  The prediction is that within the next few years companies will begin announcing plans for advanced automotive technology products.  Google has received permission from the State of California to test autonomous vehicles.

What type of disruption could one expect?  If we look backwards and see that the automobile replaced the requirement for one horse per person.  One automobile also replaced the requirement for several horses per buggy.  With the American love for the automobile, we have regressed to one or more cars per person.  But, the younger generation may change this.

"These tradeoffs are even more important to younger vehicle owners (18- to 24-year-olds) than older ones (54+ years). The younger group is more likely (30%) to choose internet access over having a vehicle (compared to just 12% of the older group), and about the same percentages are likely to use a car-sharing service as an alternative to vehicle ownership. "
So, car ownership may change.  One can envision that taxi cabs may not disappear, but become autonomous vehicles that are called when needed.   One can envision a tiered transportation system from individual autonomous cars at the high cost end, multiple person shared vehicles, such as Vans, in the middle, and busses with fixed routes as they are today, but moving autonomously.

If one spends a few moments thinking about the potential, there will be a large shift in the types of services available to the public.

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